Trader Andy @amac22nj
2022 Fantasy Baseball: Early ADP Hidden Gems
The new year is upon us and Spring Training is fast approaching(we hope!). Already with 11 drafts completed, I reflect on some great values I have seen thus far in this early preseason, particularly in the NFBC. A lot will change by Opening Day such as the restart of Free Agency, injuries, and position battles. In this segment, I will break down some former top prospects who have fallen off for multiple reasons.
Alex Kirilloff (AK47), OF/1B, Minnesota Twins
ADP 174 24 YRS OLD .251 AVG 8 HR 34 RBI. .299 OBP
Wrist injury derailed his season
1st player in MLB history to record his first hit in postseason
2018 20 hrs in A ball (12 went opposite field)
2021 8 hrs one went to RF
OBP machine during entire minor league career
Uses all fields which reduces any long slumps
I am again on him this year and buying every share I can. At 174 ADP he is a steal. EARLY BIRD GETS THE WORM.
Trevor Larnach, OF, Minnesota Twins
ADP 526 .223 AVG 7 HR 28 RBI .322 OBP
OBP machine in minors .380 or higher
K rate 34% career-high in his professional career
Third lowest rate of fastballs seen in majors at 48%
Only 43 games above A-ball before making his Major League debut
Needs to improve vs left-handed pitching to avoid a career on the wrong side of a platoon .183 avg
Tremendous upside value pick here that needs to improve at his second trip in the Big Show. Being patient at the plate to get into favorable counts will reduce the overwhelming amount of off-speed pitches seen. Larnach is currently buried in the ADP ranks after the top 500, but will easily return top 200 value with consistent opportunity.
Garrett Hampson, OF/2B, Colorado Rockies
ADP 285 27YRS OLD .240AVG 10 HR 33 RBI 17 SB .289
Lowest K rate of career 23.9%
Lowest BB rate of career 6.7%
Cheap source of fifteen stolen bases
Multiple position eligibility
This will be a make-or-break season for Hampson who needs to earn his starting spot or fall to a bench role. Showing patience at the plate will be key. Getting 15-20 stolen bases in the early bench rounds of a draft could be a solid pick.
Nick Senzel, OF, Cincinatti Reds
ADP 466 .252AVG 1 HR IN 111 ABS
Health concerns 2019-shoulder 2021-knee
Improved BB rate 9.7%
Improved K rate 12.9%
Injuries have cost Senzel at-bats in the past few years, but he is worth a flyer here as he plays multiple positions and can finally make good on his past top prospect status.
Josh Naylor, OF, Cleveland Guardians
ADP 602 .253 AVG 7 HR 21 RBI .301 OBP
OBP track record in minors .350 or higher
Must Improve vs left-handed pitching to avoid platoon .193avg
Developing power may show up this year
5% BB rate must improve
I have been on this kid since he was drafted as a player who can control the strike zone and develop into a 20-25 home run guy. Still young and with the “GUARDIANS” not trying to upgrade their roster, this could be the season he breaks out. ADP 602 IF IT'S FREE IT'S FOR ME!!!
Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland Guardians
ADP 501 .227 AVG 8 HR 35 RBI 15 SB
Health concerns in the past provide value in ADP
K rate 35% needs to improve
Cheap stolen base 20-25 if he stays on the field
Path to at-bats will be there
The former top prospect has been destroyed by injuries. Zimmer had a similar stat line in 2017 with 8 home runs and 18 stolen bases. If he can stay on the field, he will be sneaky good at helping your team.
Sam Hilliard, OF, Colorado Rockies
ADP 357 .215 AVG 14 HR 34 RBI 5 SB .294 OBP
Tremendous bat speed (93rd percentile)
Uses all fields
2019 season 42 home runs 24 stolen bases across multiple levels
Swing and miss concerns. 36% K rate
If Hillard played anywhere else besides Colorado, his ADP would be 100 picks later. As of now, he is set to start day one and possibly be the next Rockies Masher!! Buy him early as I feel his ADP rises in spring.
Taylor Trammell, OF, Seattle Mariners
ADP 717 .160 AVG 8 HR 18 RBI 2 SB
42% K Rate will improve
Relentless work ethic
Power speed potential
Undefined role with log jam in the outfield
Just a few years ago when he won the Futures Game MVP, Trammell was one of the elite players on that field. Traded a few times and adjusting to MLB pitching, I feel he can improve and be that exciting player we all thought he was.
Depending on your league and roster size, some of these guys won’t even be drafted. Keep an eye on them as the talent is still there. If half this list carves out a full-time job over the next year it is a WIN!!!
Hope this article provided some help as the draft season gets underway. Stayed tuned for Part 2 of HIDDEN GEMS as I break down Pitchers.
In the meantime, you can reach me on Twitter @Amac22NJ or check me out streaming LIVE on the Stack Attack Fantasy Podcast Wednesdays at 9pm!