JT's Week 2 Best Bets
Last week we went 3-1 in this space giving you a +1.9 unit ROI which I will take EVERYweek. The handicap on the Steelers/Giants game was down to the exact point while my other two picks were dogs who both won the game outright. We took the loss on a prop bet on George Kittle total yards and lost due to injury. Pro tip: when you bet a prop over and the player gets hurt, you lose. Can't cry about it, it happens.
This week looks like a classic teaser week with only four of the fifteen games having a spread below -5.5. Remember when teasing, never tease through the zero, and only tease when you cross at least one, preferably two, key numbers. The Chiefs -8.5 is a perfect example of this, as the six points would take you through the touchdown and field goal and land you at a beautiful -2.5. Other teams that look nice in a tease this week are Atlanta +10.5, Panthers +14.5, Steelers -1, and Packers pk. I'm also very intrigued by the Cardinals, just unsure how they react in the new role of heavy favorite this week.
This week our article focuses on only the main Sunday slate, if there is a play I like on the prime time games I will update at that time here and notify you guys on Twitter. Also, most sites do not put their full menu of player props up until Sunday morning so I will do the same if anything jumps out there. In the meantime, utilize discipline. You don't have to shove every game, this isn't the type of week I see dollar bills floating over my head when I wake up like last week, hence only giving out two plays. Will more likely use some of this handicapping and Trader Andy's DFS article and move most of my action over to the DFS slate for this week. Remember to check my out on Twitter @JTrela20, otherwise I'll see you at the ticket window!
Detroit Lions (+6) @ Green Bay Packers (49.5)
Last week the Lions lost Desmond Trufant mid game and promptly gave up 21 unanswered points to Mitch Trubisky. Now Trufant will miss the entire game and the wounded Lions will have to take on a pissed off Aaron Rodgers. They will also be without two starters on the offensive line and star WR Kenny Golladay. We hit on Green Bay as a road dog last week. Now we get them in the comfortable roll of favorite where we see they are 64-44-2 ATS the last ten years. Granted, there is some luster lost at Lambeau Field on a 68 degree sunny afternoon with no fans in the stands. Under normal Green Bay conditions, this likely is a two score spread. The total on this game opened at 46.5 and has showed as high as 50 in some spots. The public can't bet the over enough, making it a pass for me. But I just don't see an avenue for the Lions to keep this one close, so I'll just hope to keep the back door shut and not let Matt Stafford in. PLAY: PACKERS -6
San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ NY Jets (41.5)
These two teams had a pretty poor showing in week 1. West coast teams traveling east always tend to struggle, and when you go into the Meadowlands to IMPROVE your air quality, something is definitely wrong. The 49ers will be without their top weapon in George Kittle, so they will obviously be looking to pound the ball on the ground with Raheem Mostert and watch the clock tick it's way to week 3. The Jets have zero weapons with Lev Bell and Jamison Crowder both sitting out. This game figures to be a punt festival. My biggest concern is that this is two quarterbacks I do NOT trust in Sam Darnold and Jimmy Garoppolo, so the possibility of a defensive TD or turnovers leading to a short field is real. I'm willing to bet on Jimmy G refusing to throw the ball (only 9 targets to wide receivers in a loss last week) and having his eye on the first flight out of Newark. PLAY; UNDER 41.5