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  • Jeff Trela @jtrela20

@Jtrela20's Scorching Hot PGA pick of the week

Updated: Jul 16, 2020

Yeah, this is happening. I'm writing about golf. With the heater I'm on, up 34.5 units in four weeks, I figured I'll give a bit more analysis on this week's pick. Hopefully, this horrible state of the world has gravitated you to the television recently to check out the PGA tour. Most sports fans find it boring, but I'll tell you what....with skin in the game, it can be one hell of an exciting sweat.

Last week the Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village was just that, as Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas dueled to playoff, with Morikawa paying off bettors after the third hole. Our guy, Norwegian Viktor Hovland, did not disappoint, finishing a solid third after faltering a bit down the stretch, giving us an easy stroll to the window to cash our +165 Top 20 ticket.

This week, for the first time in 57 years, the PGA doubles down, staying At Muirfield Village for the Memorial Tournament, and we are full of land mines!!!! Because of the same course, recency bias, and the return of Tiger Woods....there is going to be a top heavy ticket count on last week's top performers and, of course, Tiger (more on him in a bit).

The fact is the field for the Memorial is much tougher than at the Workday. Some stars such as Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, Dustin Johnson, and Bryson DeChambeau join the field after sitting out last week. It's simply not going to be a layup that last week's results repeat themselves. That's why we are going with someone who missed the cut last week. Wait, what?

Brooks Koepka last week had a horrible Thursday, shooting a 74. He fired back on a weather affected Friday with a 69, having birdied five of the last seven holes, coming up a mere one shot short of the cut line. Koepka was not originally scheduled to compete this week, but finds himself 65 Fed Ex points away from qualifying for the Northern Trust, which is the first leg of the Tour Championship Series, which he finished fourth in last year behind Rory McIlroy who took home a whopping $15 million for the championship. Motivated by a birth in the tournament for the biggest payday on tour, and with only six more qualifying events remaining, Koepka stayed behind and added the Memorial to his schedule.

Because of the repeating venue, and Koepka's missed cut, along with the Tiger factor, we are seeing very soft odds on arguable the most complete golfer on the planet. At +300 for top 10 and +165 for top 20, Koepka offers tremendous value, depending on how risk adverse you are (I'm sticking with the top 20). With the return to form we saw in the final ten holes last Friday, and the long term motivation, pick your level of risk and sprinkle a small amount of +2800 to win the whole damn thing.


BONUS PICK:

As we all know, Tiger brings eyes to the television. If you have access to DK Sportsbook depending on what state you are in, they are running an Odds Boost on Tiger to make the cut at +125, while it is sitting at almost -300 at most books. Even if you HATE Tiger, in a 120 player field where approximately 65 golfers make the cut, or 49%, the math is just too simple not to take. If I offered you plus money on a coin flip, would you take it? Hell yeah! Tiger has been traditionally good off of a long absence, and this is only a two day sweat that gets your eyes to the television. With a limit of $50, you shouldn't pass on this fun prop bet.

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