We get a full 14 game slate for the Friday MLB DFS 8-6-21 Pitching Primer. Fortunately, we do not have to play junior meteorologist tonight, as the weather looks clear across most of the country.
The slate lines up with Corbin Burnes as the most expensive starting pitcher in a tough matchup against the San Francisco Giants.
We are going to fade this matchup and guide you through some other options, as Burnes was not in top form against Atlanta earlier this week and his average score per game falls below our 4x intended threshold.
Let's get right into it.
John Means, Baltimore Orioles ($8k FD, $8.8k DK) vs TB
John Means was in the Cy Young conversation before being sidelined with a shoulder strain, even throwing a no-hitter earlier this season. His return had been slow, with two speed bump outings before rounding back into form against Detroit earlier this week.
Means has not had much success against Tampa Bay this year, with 8 strikeouts and 9 runs allowed across 11 innings. While Means is not a power strikeout pitcher, his 4.4% walk rate and 2.84 ERA put him among the league's best.
I have beaten the drum for almost 20 weeks about using starting pitchers against the Rays. Their 10 k/9 as a squad continues to be last in baseball, and one of the most advantageous angles for a DFS player.
I would expect Means to pay off his salary in cash with relative ease today.
Adam Wainwright, St Louis Cardinals ($9.7k FD, $9.5k DK) vs KC
Adam Wainwright's resurgent season has been quite impressive. He is enjoying the best strikeout rate of his career at age 40.
The Royals have been terrible of late, and particularly bad against righties. Wainwright is a GPP only play today as it will be hard to see him outperforming Chris Bassitt at just about the same price point.
Chris Bassitt, Oakland Athletics ($9.8k FD,$9.8k DK) vs TEX
There is little left on the bone that was once the Texas Rangers. They score the least amount of runs in the American League and it is only going to get worse as they have sold off the bulk of their lineup. Bassitt comes into the matchup with a .281 xWOBA and .208 xBA against this lineup. In three starts against this year, he has allowed only 2 runs across 21 innings.
Bassitt has pitched 7 innings or more ten times this year en route to 14 Quality Starts. Today should be a layup, and at -290 the A's are the biggest favorite on the slate.
Kyle Gibson, Philadelphia Phillies ($9k FD, $7.4k DK) vs NYM
Don't look now, but the Phillies are only a half-game out of first place on the heels of a five-game winning streak. Ironically, that streak started six days ago when Kyle Gibson made his debut with the team. IN that contest against the Pirates, he pitched into the seventh inning while striking out five on his way to a victory.
The Mets are absolutely reeling right now. Their 3.8 runs per game put them only behind the Pirates in the senior circuit, but over the last ten games, they have only averaged 3.2 runs per game. It is Alumni Weekend at Citizen's Bank Park, and with a chance to take over the NL East today I expect Gibson to pay off his trade price with a strong outing behind a large home crowd.
His price on DraftKings is laughable. He is a plug-and-play on that site despite the expected high ownership.
Wade Miley, Cincinnati Reds ($8.5K FD,$8.2k DK) vs PIT
Have I mentioned the Pirates are an easy target for us DFS players? When you take a team that cannot score and pit them against a pitcher with an ERA of 2.92, the results are not hard to predict. Perhaps this is why the Reds are a -200 favorite today .
Wade Miley only needs 34 FanDuel points in order to pay off the 4x salary investment we expect for cash games, and he has reached that score in eleven of 21 starts this year. He should continue to limit hard contact and keep the game under control while his offense pours on the support. They are only overshadowed by the mighty Dodgers when it comes to scoring runs in the National League.
Nate Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox ($8.8k FD, $7.9k DK) @ TOR
No one else is going to take this risk and probably you shouldn't either. The Blue Jays are one of the hottest teams in the league, and easily one of the most popular teams to stack in DFS. I would expect more than 20 percent of lineups today to have two or more Toronto hitters.
We can leverage against this by rolling the dice in our single entry GPP and betting on the success that Nate Eovaldi has had against Toronto. He brings respectable .283 xWOBA and .222 xBA into this matchup. His 31% strikeout rate against the Blue Jays' roster further predicts a possible standout game by the consistent veteran.
This is not a play for your main lineup, and certainly not for cash, but it is a possible slate-breaking position that no one else is going to try.
Zack Greinke, Houston Astros ($8.5K FD ,$9.6k DK) vs. MIN
Zack Greinke has been one of the most frustrating pitchers to own in fantasy baseball this season. Well, that is why we play DFS! All sins are forgiven, and today is a new day!
The Minnesota Twins lineup is a shell of what it was last year, and even what it was earlier this year. Greinke has a long record of success against them and matches up well with a .235 xWOBA and .204 xBA.
The price on DraftKings is prohibitive, and the upside versus price on FanDuel due to lack of strikeouts leaves him for cash game plays only. The possibility for a Quality Start and Win equity as a -195 may offset his disappointing 18.4% strikeout rate.
Personally, I would rather go up to Gibson or down to Means for my lineups.
For any questions related to the MLB DFS 8-6-21 Pitching Primer, or for additional options, you can reach me on Twitter @jtrela20. Otherwise, check me out streaming LIVE this Wednesday at 7:00 PM EST on the Stack Attack Fantasy Podcast, now part of the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube network of podcasts.